RuncheyResearch
Forecasts and reasoning, on the record.
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Geopolitical Forecasting
Live situations — a developing event, its key inputs, and probabilistic forecasts on how it evolves, updated as facts change. First situation: the 2026 U.S. midterms.
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Congressional Forecasting
Which bills move, which die, and why. Legislation, votes, and member behavior tracked continuously, with probabilistic forecasts attached to outcomes.
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AI Buildout Analysis
The AI buildout treated as a system: the semiconductor complex, capability trajectories, disruption dynamics, and criticality models of how it all unwinds or compounds — predictable moves, unpredictable timing.
Live
Research Archive
Methodology era 1 (2025–2026): 260+ multi-lens equity analyses, 2,300+ scored forecast markets, macro themes, and sector deep-dives. Everything remains at its original URL.
Complete & preservedExplore